← Happyland Store Championship
Water Crux LorraineTier 2
at Happyland Store Championship
decks
1
(3.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-3-1
overall winrate
12.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.7%
avg ELO -5.3 per match
expected value
41.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1159
· median 1159
· range 1159–1159
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1249
Q3 1461
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 19.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 12.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Fire Byakko | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.5 |
| Water Fractal | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
